Hearts in Hawai'i
WhatIf Sports--NFL Football Simulation (Rd 1)
10/22/2024
I found WhatIf Sports several years ago and had the chance to try it out with some Major League Baseball and NFL Football simulations, curiosity driving me to try out certain matchups like the 1927 Yankees vs. the 1982 Brewers (the Yankees, of course, won that series HUGE). After tinkering with these matchups, I left the simulator alone until this year when I wondered how a tournament featuring all the playoff teams in MLB since 1901 would match up. It wouldn't be a round-robin tournament, of course! More like a single elimination of best-of-five or best-of-seven series with all the teams seeded a certain way. Bill James developed the Pythagorian expectation which estimates how many games a team will win in a season based on their runs scored and runs allowed. I'm basing this seeding on the simplified Pythagorian formula.
Fast forward to this past week and once again I was considering doing such a tournament--only this time, in NFL Football! I ranked every playoff team since 1950 based on their PageStat ratings for that season (You can see my PageStat ratings all over my site as they are the primary component of what I do on this site). It's similar to Mr. James' Pythagorian formula but I believe it's more accurate because PageStat takes into account not only what you do, but the quality of the opponents you do it against.
After seeding 655 teams, I ended up with a First Round bracket matching the teams ranked 370-655. This would eliminate enough teamns so that 512 teams would remain. From there, it would take nine rounds to determing a final champion in a single-elimination tournament. Since these seedings resulted in some teams playing against themselves, the only change I made was that, for example, if the 1969 Vikings were matched up against the 1988 Vikings, the lower seed would be bumped back one spot. I found five such occurances in the first round, three in the second round (so far--there may be more after that round is fully set with the teams advancing from round one). Starting in the third round, if a team ended up matched up against the same team of a different year, they'd have to battle it out to see who progresses to the next round.
There were five franchises which had at least 30 playoff teams--the Cowboys (36), Steelers (33), Packers and Vikings (31 each) and Rams (30). Of course, any Vikings-Packers matchup would be one I'd really like to see and the seedings didn't disappoint, giving us these:
1977 Vikings at 2016 Packers in the first round
1992 Vikings at 2009 Packers in the second round
1974 Vikings at 2012 Packers in the second round
There could be more matchups in the second round, of course, based on who advances from the first round.
With that said, here are your first round matchups!
(655) 2010 Seattle Seahawks at (370) 1958 New York Giants
(654) 2004 St Louis Rams at (371) 2017 Carolina Panthers
(653) 2011 Denver Broncos at (372) 2020 Seattle Seahawks
(652) 1998 Arizona Cardinals at (373) 1977 Baltimore Colts
(651) 2012 Indianapolis Colts at (374) 1989 Buffalo Bills
(650) 1982 Cleveland Browns at (375) 1953 Detroit Lions
(649) 1977 Chicago Bears at (376) 1985 New York Giants
(648) 2013 Green Bay Packers at (377) 2017 Pittsburgh Steelers
(647) 1982 Atlanta Falcons at (378) 2021 Green Bay Packers
(646) 1965 Cleveland Browns at (379) 2012 Baltimore Ravens
(645) 2017 Buffalo Bills at (380) 1997 Jacksonville Jaguars
(644) 2004 Seattle Seahawks at (381) 1984 Chicago Bears
(643) 2017 Tennessee Titans at (382) 2000 Denver Broncos
(642) 1978 Atlanta Falcons at (383) 2011 Pittsburgh Steelers
(641) 2021 Las Vegas Raiders at (384) 2014 Indianapolis Colts
(640) 1982 St Louis Cardinals at (385) 1998 Buffalo Bills
(639) 1989 Houston Oilers at (386) 2010 Philadelphia Eagles
(638) 1989 Pittsburgh Steelers at (387) 2005 New England Patriots
(637) 2022 Tampa Bay Bucs at (388) 1994 Miami Dolphins
(636) 1983 Denver Broncos at (389) 1982 San Diego Chargers
(635) 1979 Tampa Bay Bucs at (390) 1998 Miami Dolphins
(634) 2021 Pittsburgh Steelers at (391) 2000 New York Giants
(633) 2006 Seattle Seahawks at (392) 2021 Arizona Cardinals
(632) 2016 Miami Dolphins at (393) 2000 Philadelphia Eagles
(631) 1996 Indianapolis Colts at (394) 2018 Seattle Seahawks
(630) 2015 Washington Redskins at (395) 1990 Los Angeles Raiders
(629) 1955 Los Angeles Rams at (396) 1976 Dallas Cowboys
(628) 2016 Detroit Lions at (397) 1981 New York Giants
(627) 2014 Carolina Panthers at (398) 1978 Denver Broncos
(626) 1982 New England Patriots at (399) 2010 Chicago Bears
(625) 2015 Houston Texans at (400) 2013 Indianapolis Colts
(624) 2016 Houston Texans at (401) 1987 Denver Broncos
(623) 2010 Kansas City Chiefs at (402) 1982 Pittsburgh Steelers
(622) 1991 New York Jets at (403) 1979 Denver Broncos
(621) 2020 Cleveland Browns at (404) 2003 Philadelphia Eagles
(620) 1994 Chicago Bears at (405) 1991 Atlanta Falcons
(619) 1957 Detroit Lions at (406) 2018 Indianapolis Colts
(618) 2004 Atlanta Falcons at (407) 1987 Chicago Bears
(617) 2023 Philadelphia Eagles at (408) 1999 Tennessee Titans
(616) 1990 New Orleans Saints at (409) 1989 Philadelphia Eagles
(615) 1978 Minnesota Vikings at (410) 1983 Seattle Seahawks
(614) 1996 Minnesota Vikings at (411) 1980 Buffalo Bills
(613) 2022 Seattle Seahawks at (412) 2002 New York Jets
(612) 1970 Miami Dolphins at (413) 2020 Pittsburgh Steelers
(611) 1985 Cleveland Browns at (414) 1979 Miami Dolphins
(610) 2005 Tampa Bay Bucs at (415) 1990 Houston Oilers
(609) 1983 Pittsburgh Steelers at (416) 2001 Oakland Raiders
(608) 2004 Minnesota Vikings at (417) 1985 Los Angeles Raiders
(607) 2020 Washington Football at (418) 2021 Cincinnati Bengals
(606) 2003 Dallas Cowboys at (419) 2008 Carolina Panthers
(605) 2022 Minnesota Vikings at (420) 1993 Denver Broncos
(604) 2008 Miami Dolphins at (421) 1984 Pittsburgh Steelers
(603) 2022 New York Giants at (422) 1975 St Louis Cardinals
(602) 1980 Minnesota Vikings at (423) 1999 Seattle Seahawks
(601) 2004 Green Bay Packers at (424) 2013 Cincinnati Bengals
(600) 1995 Buffalo Bills at (425) 1989 Cleveland Browns
(599) 1971 Cleveland Browns at (426) 2003 Seattle Seahawks
(598) 1999 Miami Dolphins at (427) 2003 Denver Broncos
(597) 2022 Los Angeles Chargers at (428) 1997 Detroit Lions
(596) 1967 Cleveland Browns at (429) 1993 Green Bay Packers
(595) 2019 Philadelphia Eagles at (430) 2005 Cincinnati Bengals
(594) 1995 Atlanta Falcons at (431) 2013 San Diego Chargers
(593) 2002 Indianapolis Colts at (432) 2023 Miami Dolphins
(592) 1995 Philadelphia Eagles at (433) 1989 Minnesota Vikings
(591) 1977 Minnesota Vikings at (434) 2016 Green Bay Packers
(590) 1985 Dallas Cowboys at (435) 2023 Green Bay Packers
(589) 2011 Cincinnati Bengals at (436) 2006 Dallas Cowboys
(588) 1996 Jacksonville Jaguars at (437) 1981 San Diego Chargers
(587) 1993 Detroit Lions at (438) 2005 Jacksonville Jaguars
(586) 1979 Chicago Bears at (439) 1978 New England Patriots
(585) 1970 Cincinnati Bengals at (440) 2007 Washington Redskins
(584) 2002 San Francisco 49ers at (441) 2012 Washington Redskins
(583) 1986 New York Jets at (442) 1991 Denver Broncos
(582) 2009 Arizona Cardinals at (443) 1994 San Diego Chargers
(581) 1997 Minnesota Vikings at (444) 1996 Dallas Cowboys
(580) 1988 Seattle Seahawks at (445) 1968 Minnesota Vikings
(579) 2000 New Orleans Saints at (446) 2021 Tennessee Titans
(578) 1986 Kansas City Chiefs at (447) 1987 Indianapolis Colts
(577) 2000 Minnesota Vikings at (448) 1978 Los Angeles Rams
(576) 1993 Minnesota Vikings at (449) 2018 Houston Texans
(575) 2023 Pittsburgh Steelers at (450) 2006 Philadelphia Eagles
(574) 2001 New York Jets at (451) 2022 Baltimore Ravens
(573) 1987 Houston Oilers at (452) 1998 Jacksonville Jaguars
(572) 1990 Cincinnati Bengals at (453) 2012 Houston Texans
(571) 1979 Los Angeles Rams at (454) 1993 Kansas City Chiefs
(570) 2014 Cincinnati Bengals at (455) 1988 Philadelphia Eagles
(569) 1982 Detroit Lions at (456) 2008 Minnesota Vikings
(568) 2006 New York Giants at (457) 2020 Indianapolis Colts
(567) 1988 Cleveland Browns at (458) 2008 Atlanta Falcons
(566) 1996 Philadelphia Eagles at (459) 1985 Los Angeles Rams
(565) 1995 San Diego Chargers at (460) 1988 Houston Oilers
(564) 2020 Chicago Bears at (461) 1993 New York Giants
(563) 2009 Cincinnati Bengals at (462) 2017 Kansas City Chiefs
(562) 2002 New York Giants at (463) 1994 New England Patriots
(561) 1995 Indianapolis Colts at (464) 1979 Dallas Cowboys
(560) 2006 Kansas City Chiefs at (465) 1950 Chicago Bears
(559) 2019 Houston Texans at (466) 1999 Washington Redskins
(558) 2007 Tampa Bay Bucs at (467) 1981 Miami Dolphins
(557) 1974 Buffalo Bills at (468) 2001 Tampa Bay Bucs
(556) 1970 Oakland Raiders at (469) 1997 Tampa Bay Bucs
(555) 1972 Cleveland Browns at (470) 1991 Dallas Cowboys
(554) 2016 New York Giants at (471) 1986 Cleveland Browns
(553) 1994 Kansas City Chiefs at (472) 2010 Indianapolis Colts
(552) 1981 Tampa Bay Bucs at (473) 2002 Pittsburgh Steelers
(551) 2007 Tennessee Titans at (474) 1999 Tampa Bay Bucs
(550) 1993 Los Angeles Raiders at (475) 2019 Green Bay Packers
(549) 1991 Chicago Bears at (476) 2002 Green Bay Packers
(548) 1980 Houston Oilers at (477) 1992 Kansas City Chiefs
(547) 1997 New York Giants at (478) 2016 Seattle Seahawks
(546) 1997 Miami Dolphins at (479) 2006 New Orleans Saints
(545) 2014 Arizona Cardinals at (480) 1998 New England Patriots
(544) 1982 Cincinnati Bengals at (481) 1969 Cleveland Browns
(543) 1993 Pittsburgh Steelers at (482) 1973 Cincinnati Bengals
(542) 1982 Minnesota Vikings at (483) 2023 Los Angeles Rams
(541) 1982 Tampa Bay Bucs at (484) 2012 Minnesota Vikings
(540) 2002 Tennessee Titans at (485) 1998 Dallas Cowboys
(539) 2008 Arizona Cardinals at (486) 2000 St Louis Rams
(538) 1999 Detroit Lions at (487) 2016 Oakland Raiders
(537) 1991 Los Angeles Raiders at (488) 1976 Washington Redskins
(536) 2018 Dallas Cowboys at (489) 2012 Cincinnati Bengals
(535) 1978 Houston Oilers at (490) 1979 Philadelphia Eagles
(534) 2023 Cleveland Browns at (491) 1996 Buffalo Bills
(533) 1986 Los Angeles Rams at (492) 2014 Detroit Lions
(532) 2010 New Orleans Saints at (493) 2018 Philadelphia Eagles
(531) 2023 Houston Texans at (494) 1970 Baltimore Colts
(530) 2005 Chicago Bears at (495) 1994 Detroit Lions
(529) 2020 Tennessee Titans at (496) 2013 Philadelphia Eagles
(528) 2002 Cleveland Browns at (497) 1983 Detroit Lions
(527) 2014 Pittsburgh Steelers at (498) 2003 Carolina Panthers
(526) 1981 New York Jets at (499) 2023 Tampa Bay Bucs
(525) 1983 Los Angeles Rams at (500) 1991 Detroit Lions
(524) 1984 New York Giants at (501) 1987 Minnesota Vikings
(523) 1980 Cleveland Browns at (502) 2011 Atlanta Falcons
(522) 1994 Minnesota Vikings at (503) 1984 Los Angeles Rams
(521) 1978 Philadelphia Eagles at (504) 2019 Seattle Seahawks
(520) 2001 Miami Dolphins at (505) 2007 Seattle Seahawks
(519) 2019 Buffalo Bills at (506) 2021 Philadelphia Eagles
(518) 2006 New York Jets at (507) 1990 Chicago Bears
(517) 2001 Baltimore Ravens at (508) 1987 Seattle Seahawks
(516) 1992 Pittsburgh Steelers at (509) 2022 Miami Dolphins
(515) 2022 Jacksonville Jaguars at (510) 1992 San Diego Chargers
(514) 1995 Miami Dolphins at (511) 1981 Buffalo Bills
(513) 1992 Miami Dolphins at (512) 1999 Dallas Cowboys
Results will be posted after I complete the first round games and determine who will be moving on to the second round where we will be halving the 512 teams remaining
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