Hearts in Hawai'i
WhatIf Sports--NFL Football Simulation (Final rounds)
11/14/2024
We have a champion!
Round 7 results:
2011 Pittsburgh Steelers 23, 1962 Green Bay Packers 20
1985 Chicago Bears 17, 2022 San Francisco 49ers 9
1991 Washington Redskins 20, 1984 Seattle Seahawks 7
2013 Denver Broncos 26, 1989 San Francisco 49ers 25
1979 Pittsburgh Steelers 20, 2015 Arizona Cardinals 15
1999 St. Louis Rams 13, 2006 New England Patriots 6
2012 Denver Broncos 31, 1992 San Francisco 49ers 13
2017 Philadelphia Eagles 19, 1987 San Francisco 49ers 13
Quarterfinal results:
2011 Pittsburgh Steelers 27, 1985 Chicago Bears 17
2013 Denver Broncos 49, Washington Redskins 21
1979 Pittsburgh Steelers 32, 2017 Philadelphia Eagles 17
2012 Denver Broncos 19, 1999 St. Louis Rams 9
Semifinal results:
1979 Pittsburgh Steelers 18, 2011 Pittsburgh Steelers 10
2012 Denver Broncos 31, 2013 Denver Broncos 13
Finals:
1979 Pittsburgh Steelers 26, 2012 Denver Broncos 20
Here was the Steelers path to the championship. They were the overall #36 seed:
Round 2: Defeated the #566 1996 Philadelphia Eagles 30-10
Round 3: Defeated the #438 2005 Jacksonville Jaguars 23-3
Round 4: Defeated the #355 2011 Houston Texans 30-20
Round 5: Defeated the #349 1997 San Francisco 49ers 24-10
Round 6: Defeated the #218 2003 Green Bay Packers 37-6
Round 7: Defeated the #101 2015 Arizona Cardinals 20-13
Quarterfinals: Defeated the #64 2017 Philadelphia Eagles 32-17
Semfinals: Defeated the #383 2011 Pittsburgh Steelers 18-10
Finals: Defeated the #56 2012 Denver Broncos 26-20
Which franchises has the best luck and who had the worst? The top five franchises, by percentage won, were:
1. Green Bay (46-31)
2. San Francisco (40-28)
3. New York Jets (17-12)
4. New England (38-27)
5. Denver (30-22)
The five worst:
1. Carolina (2-8)
2. Minnesota (18-31)
3. Cincinnati (10-16)
4. Kansas City (14-22)
5. Detroit (11-17)
Franchises with the most total wins were Green Bay (46), Dallas (45), San Francisco (40), New England (38) and Pittsburgh (38)
Franchises with the most total losses were Dallas (36), Pittsburgh (32), Green Bay (31), Minnesota (31), and Los Angeles Rams (30). This corresponds with the # of entrants each franchise had other than Pittsburgh which had 33 francises including the winner.
How realistic a simulation was this? Without having any idea what criteria WhatIfSports uses when compiling the data which goes into these simulations and what kind of randomization goes into the games, I'd say the results are sort of fair. As I was watching the results coming in during the early rounds, my impression what that WhatIfSports simulations were little better than randomized. That was until I saw how the higher seeded teams performed (the seeding were determined by each team's final PageStat rating for that year) and I saw that higher seeded teams won 59% of these games. This wasn't by chance; There were 639 games played in this tournament so obviously something more realistic than luck was happening. You also have to realize that this is a single-elimination tournament and that upsets do happen. Also, we're not talking about 4-12 teams beating 12-4 teams. These were all playoff teams and quite capable.
That being said, it was a fun simulation to run and I'm going to try and NHL simulation next. Stay tuned!
Previous: 11/13/2024--WhatIf Sports--NFL Football Simulation (Rd 6 results and Rd 7 pairings)
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